Warning as housing stock piles up

The Australian 12:00am May 17, 2019

Ben Wilmot

The housing market has been hit by a wave of stock build-up with properties taking longer to sell ahead of the federal election that could generate further period of uncertainty, with Labor promising to introduce changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax if it forms the next government.

The auction market has dipped despite some signs of stabilisation, and could fall away if the rule changes drive uncertainty and demand from buyers remains soft.

CoreLogic analyst Cameron Kusher said there was an elevated level of housing for sale in capital cities. Even if no more properties were advertised for sale it would take 5.3 months for the advertised supply to clear, he said.

CoreLogic’s stock indicator has leapt to its highest level for any time since 2012. Just a year ago, there was a lower level of 3.9 months in supply for sale.

“The lift in months of supply is a function of a lift in the amount of stock available for sale and the ongoing fall in transaction volumes,” Mr Kusher said.

The slowing housing market and price falls are also hitting lenders with Macquarie Equities warning yesterday about negative equity becoming a feature in bank mortgage books.Based on Reserve Bank data, it estimated that 2.5-3.5 per cent of bank mortgages were in negative equity.

ANZ said about 5 per cent of its portfolio had a loan-to-value ratio over 100 per cent, while National Australia Bank and Westpac estimated it at 1-1.6 per cent.

“While negative equity isn’t problematic in isolation, with a rise in unemployment or responsible lending failures, it is likely to result in losses,” Macquarie said.

The soft state market has prompted warnings that weakness will last into 2020 unless the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates and the cuts are passed on to borrowers by banks.

Lending restrictions by APRA and greater scrutiny of loan applications undertaken after the banking royal commission were the real catalyst for the downturn, RiskWise Property Research chief executive Doron Peleg said.

Political uncertainty, fears about potential changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, as well as restrictions on foreign investors, had a “material impact” on the property market, Mr Peleg said. “The major risks associated with residential property have, and continue to be, significantly increased in comparison to the risk levels in the long term.”

Mr Peleg said Labor was an “80 per cent” chance to win the federal election and its proposed changes would “make property investment, in both existing and new dwellings, by far less attractive”.

Grattan Institute fellow Brendan Coates said that if Labor was elected the debate over negative gearing would continue until changes were legislated. He said most of the price impact from the proposed changes was already built into the market and stock levels and the interest rates would have more influence on the market. “Those two things will have a bigger price impact than negative gearing and capital gains tax changes will,” he said.

Industry group Master Builders Australia reiterated its argument that Labor’s proposed tax changes would mean fewer new homes were built. Chief executive Denita Wawn said at least 195,000 new homes a year were required, but only 175,000 were being built, and warned Labor’s proposed changes may mean there would be up to 42,000 fewer homes built over five years.

The Coalition’s $500 million plan to back first-home buyers has also drawn some criticism. Starr Partners chief executive Douglas Driscoll said underwriting home loan deposits for 10,000 first-home buyers would inadvertently disadvantage purchasers.

“Although it makes it easier to buy now, it also potentially burdens them with larger monthly repayments and the prospect of having to pay thousands more in interest to the bank over the life cycle of a loan,” he said.