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'The longer I hold, the more I lose': FONGO takes hold of home sellers
Sydney Morning Herald 1 February 2019 2:58pm
Nick Bonyhady, Sumeyya Ilanbey
After 10 years investing in the property Andres Vargas has keenly felt the market's sharp turn in the last 18 months.
He sold one house near Mt Druitt for a tidy profit last year and has now decided to sell his remaining Sydney investment in Green Valley, west of Liverpool.
"I got it valued at $619,000 by the bank when I was applying for my home loan a year and a half ago," Mr Vargas said. "I've now seen similar properties going up for sale for $540,000, so there is a clear 10 per cent drop there alone.
"It's quite scary. The longer I hold onto it, the more I'm losing."
Welcome to the world of FONGO (fear of not getting out) for property vendors, a market sapping phenomenon which has replaced the FOMO (fear of missing out) for buyers that had driven values upwards.
AMP Capital's chief economist, Shane Oliver, who is tipping a 10 per cent fall this financial year in both Sydney and Melbourne, said the overall economy could be hit as people moved to offload their properties before prices fell even further.
"Over the last 12 months we have come to expect even deeper falls in house prices with the tightening in credit conditions and a shift from "fear of missing out" or FOMO towards a "fear of not getting out" or FONGO by some property market participants being major drivers," he said.
Mr Vargas plans to put his sale proceeds towards a lead-tracking startup for businesses he has founded which he felt was a more certain bet than the property market. He has a very different mindset to that which he had several years ago.
"Everyone pretty much said, every seven years, seven and a half years you'd see your property doubling," the Sydney entrepreneur said.
"I can't find any good opportunities anywhere in Sydney in terms of growth."
Mr Vargas also named Labor's plan to reduce the capital gains tax discount and the banks' decision to tighten lending standards on interest-only loans in the wake of the royal commission as factors that fortified his determination to sell.
"Rather than getting more greedy, if you've got those rewards to take out of it, just take it before the government takes it," Mr Vargas said.
But Mr Vargas is not getting out of the property game entirely. He has land in the country which he said does not have as far to fall, and a family home in Sydney he shares with his fiance.
Kobi Boaron had more riding on the fate of the property market than most other buyers.
Boaran bought an entire 12 unit apartment block in St Kilda East in inner Melbourne with his business partner at the height of the property market with a plan to renovate and sell.
But when they were ready to sell just seven months later, the market had come crashing down.
“We had no choice but to sell,” Mr Boaron says. “We were worried about the prices coming down even further.”
Mr Boaran, a mortgage broker, said he and business partner Sagi Mitlin, together with other investors, bought the 1960s apartment block for about $5 million in March last year, and splashed a further $1.2 million on renovations.
An apartment valuation in August came in at $650,000, but by October the two apartments fetched $550,000 and $570,000.
“I knew it would happen; I saw all the reasons for it to happen … but what surprised me was how quick it changed and how quick it turned down,” Mr Boaron, a mortgage broker, says.
Mr Boaron had hoped his group could make a $1 million profit but if they sold all 12 units in today’s climate, they would only break even. So the group are holding onto five until property prices start rising again.
“If we sold two months earlier we would’ve made more money, if we sold six months earlier we would’ve made a lot of money, but we’ll make the money in two or three years’ time now,” he says.
“Even though the market turned on us, we didn’t lose money and it wasn’t a disaster. When we sold the apartment for $550,000 we realised we were selling it under the market but we did it to secure our lending and we didn’t want to wait and lose more money.”