Billion dollar squeeze on state budgets as property markets slow

Australian Financial Review May 13 2018 11:45 PM

Duncan Hughes

The Victorian and NSW governments are bracing for a multibillion-dollar slowdown in tax receipts as lower property sales and slower price growth squeezes stamp duty receipts, analysis of government documents shows.

Both states' Treasuries are warning their governments they might have to tighten their belts after nearly seven years of tax windfalls filled their coffers, the analysis shows.

In Victoria, stamp duty, or land transfer duty, is expected to grow 3.8 per cent to $7.1 billion in 2018-19.

By contrast, the $6.8 billion haul expected for 2017-18 represents an 11 per cent increase on the previous year. Over the forward period the growth is expected to average 3.2 per cent.

In NSW stamp duty receipts are falling below official mid-year forecasts as rising costs, a crackdown on interest-only lending to investors and tougher scrutiny of all buyers' income and expenditures as resulted in a sharp slowdown compared to the same time last year.

Recent statements from state Treasuries warn about the impact of a gradual rise in interest rates, which will weaken housing volumes and prices.

"A sharper than anticipated correction in the residential property market presents downside risks to the revenue profile,"  the Victorian Treasury advises in recent state budget analysis.

Victorian housing growth volumes averaged 6.3 per cent in the four years to 2016-17. In the forward years of the budget, that growth is expected to turn negative.

Most of Victoria's stamp duty haul comes from residential property. But the contribution from commercial property rose from 14.3 per cent to 24.3 per cent in the last six months of 2017.

"Low vacancy rates for office space in Melbourne, strong growth in rental income and building approvals suggest commercial duties may remain high in the near term," the Treasury advises.

Stamp duty is the largest contributor to Victoria's tax take. Overall, tax revenue is forecast to hit $24.1 billion in 2018-19, a rise of 7.3 per cent. Growth is expected to average 4.5 per cent over the forward estimates.

In NSW, Treasury has downgraded its estimate of stamp duty receipts by $461 million this financial year and $1.1 billion over the forward estimates.  .

"GST revenue is expected to be slightly higher over the budget and forward estimates," the NSW Treasury advises in its recent mid-year economic review.

"This has been offset by stamp duty revenue, which is $1.1 billion lower that at the time of the [state] budget," it states.

Economists claim falling stamp duty receipts are being partly offset by rising payroll tax and land tax, which is based on the previous three years' valuations.

Stamp duty has remain unchanged in NSW for 32 years despite median house prices rising by nearly 1200 per cent, according to CoreLogic, which monitors property prices and trends.  

Average stamp duty of about $32,000 is the nation's highest, followed by $25,000 in NSW and about $21,000 in the Northern Territory, according to Housing Industry Association analysis based on 2017 prices.

Typical stamp duty on foreign investors ranges from about $91,000 in NSW to more than $74,000 in Victoria, according to the HIA, which blames the tax for increasing unaffordability.