BFCSA: Australian Liberal government disintegrates - full blown panic stations

 Australian Liberal government disintegrates

By Houses and Holes in Australian Politics

at 7:53 am on February 8, 2017 | 140 comments

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/02/another-australian-government-desintegrates/

It’s full blown panic stations today as the Turnbull Government falls apart. Paul Kelly supports it:

The conservative side of Australian politics is now devouring itself, consumed by personal aggran­disement, ideological delusion and populist fervour in an upheaval likely to destroy the Turnbull government, deliver power to the Labor Party and generate a structural split among conservatives that will weaken their cause for years to come.

The grandest hoax of our time, pumped out daily by conservative media outlets, is that the present Donald Trump-inspired turbulence will make conservatism in Australia ever stronger. In truth, conservatism in this country is being ­trashed. Every principle and value of genuine conservatism is being ripped up in an orgy of indulgent self-interest that exposes the intellectual and moral weakness of conservatism in Australia and its abject corruption by Trumpism.

The convulsive sea change rocking our politics points towards a historic outcome — a com­prehensive victory of the pro­gressive forces, the big winners being ALP leader Bill Shorten, the Labor Party, the Greens, the trade unions and the progressive interest groups.

…This is not because of superior policy performance by Labor. It is not because of Shorten’s genius or popularity. It is not because people are enthralled by progressive ideas or ideology. Indeed, progressive flaws are graphic and on display. Shorten is under pressure from the rising hostility towards the major parties but he wins because this upheaval is concentrated heavily on the Coalition side.

The real loser on every measure is ­Malcolm Turnbull. The ­upshot is that the progressives are being given a free ride because the conservatives are tearing themselves apart in a bizarre and visceral project of self-destruction.

The real problem for the Turnbull government is that this looms as an out-of-control process. ­Nobody can contain it. The ­destructive forces seem beyond the management and control of Turnbull as Prime Minister.

…Turnbull is a rationalist and ­incrementalist leader. He pitches to jobs and growth, economic ­responsibility, free trade, energy pricing, corporate tax cuts, secure borders and national security. In normal times this would be a workable Liberal agenda — if he could secure his bills through the Senate. But Turnbull is an anti-populist and anti-ideological leader in an age driven by populism and ideology on the conservative side. This is his essential problem. Turnbull is unable to counter the fragmentation and upheaval within conservative politics. He never calls himself a conservative and is not seen as a conservative. Turnbull lacks a voice in this contest for the Liberal Party soul.

Wrong, Paul. Turnbull is neither “rationalist” nor ­”incrementalist”. He is hollow. All of his pitches lack the credibility of a value system and vision. His growth and jobs agenda is to support house prices by doing nothing. His free trade agenda is to push mostly harmful FTAs and the stone dead TPP. His energy pitch is coal. Coal, for heaven’s sake! His corporate tax cut is a laughing stock among economists. His border security agenda is anathema to his long history of public discussion.

He makes Bill Shorten and Labor look like credible reformist geniuses by comparison. Let’s not forget that Turnbull basically lost the election but was kept in power by Nick Xenophon winning what would have been Labor seats in SA. That was before Trump.

Malcolm Turnbull biggest problem is that he has no legitimacy. He is a walking power vacuum.

Then along comes Donald Trump and fills it with Conservative delusion. From last night’s Bolt Report as the doyen of conservatism wars with his own employer:

So, where does the Coalition go from here? It’s got a few choices, none of them very happy:

·         persist with Turnbull and get torn apart;

·         dump Turnbull and go back to Tony Abbott, shift the agenda to the Right and outflank One Nation, and still lose;

·         do the same with a new leader.

Abbott is the only option so far as I can see. A compromise candidate at this point will only ring more hollow. Abbott will lose of course but he’ll at least be competitive in debate with an anti-immigration agenda to put up against Labor’s negative gearing reforms. He’s a very good campaigner and it might prevent Labor from pushing its own limits to immigration, giving the Coalition a big lift. Like Rudd did in his second coming, he might prevent an election white wash.

Let’s not forget the principle driver of all of this, which has now destroyed four straight governments. Nobody has been honest about Australian’s fading circumstances and falling living standards:

·         Rudd failed to explain as he went after the mining tax;

·         Gillard failed to explain it as she reformed energy markets;

·         Rudd failed to explain it again as had second go;

·         Abbott failed to recognise the structural challenge and his cyclical solutions for Budget repair did more harm than good;

·         Turnbull failed to explain the reforms needed, opting instead to do nothing to keep house prices up, advised by the RBA and Treasury as they sought to duck responsibility for their own bubble.

There is a national project out there in the ether that is desperately needed to turn around the economic funk.  It is difficult but true and can therefore offer a government the legitimacy lacking in the last five:

·         the mining boom is over;

·         the property boom is an economic and intergenerational disaster and tax reform must address it;

·         national competitiveness must be repaired;

·         productivity must be repaired;

·         we need a lower currency, more infrastructure and lower immigration;

·         selling everything to China will kill ANZUS so is not an answer;

·         it will take mutual sacrifice and hard work but reform can fix it.

The Coalition is so far down the path of busted policy that it is probably only Labor that can deliver it. It had better, or it will find itself falling apart too, soon enough.